FAO in North America

Global food prices up slightly, cereal production forecast down

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on October 4, 2012

The FAO Food Price Index rose slightly in September 2012, up 1.4 percent, or 3 points, from its level in August. The rise reflected strengthening dairy and meat prices and more contained increases for cereals. Prices of sugar and oils, on the other hand, fell.

Meanwhile, FAO’s latest forecasts confirm a decline in global cereal production this year from the record registered in 2011. But record harvests are expected in low-income food-deficit countries.

World cereal production in 2012 is now forecast at 2 286 million tonnes, slightly down from the  2 295 million tonnes estimated in September, according to the new issue of FAO’s quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report also published today.

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USDA forecasts sharp decline in corn, soybean production

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on August 10, 2012

The US Department of Agriculture projected a sharp decline in corn production for the second consecutive month. Its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released today forecast U.S. corn production for 2012/13 at 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006/07.

Soybean production for 2012/13 is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down 358 million due to lower harvested area and yields, the report said.

The new forecasts come on the heels of FAO’s latest Food Price Index, which rose 6 percent in July after three months of decline.

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Food prices up

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on August 9, 2012

The FAO Food Price Index climbed 6 percent in July 2012 after three months of decline. The Index averaged 213 points, up 12 points from June but well below the peak of 238 points reached in February 2011. Grains and sugar were the main drivers of the increase.

The severe deterioration of US maize crop prospects due to extensive drought damage pushed up maize prices by almost 23 percent in July.

International wheat prices also surged 19 percent amid worsened production prospects in Russia and expectations of firm demand for wheat as feed because of tight maize supplies.

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New study on climate change impacts on tropical agriculture

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on August 2, 2012

Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)A new study just out from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security shows that there are some crucial gaps in our understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on many key food staples and natural resources in developing countries.

The study, “Impacts of climate change on the agricultural and aquatic systems and natural resources within the CGIAR’s mandate”, contains summaries for 22 commodities and for agroforestry, forests and water.  These summaries, written by CGIAR scientists, outline the importance of each commodity for food and nutrition security, its biological vulnerability to climate change, and the likely socio-economic vulnerability of the people affected.

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FAO: Export prices of grains rise sharply in July

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on July 20, 2012

According to FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture, export prices of grains have risen sharply in July. Export prices of maize increased by 20 percent in the first three weeks of July compared to their June level, while international wheat prices rose by some 21 percent over the same period.

Prices for maize were underpinned by continuous concerns about the impact of hot and dry weather conditions on yield potential of the 2012 maize crop in parts of the United States.

Deterioration of prospects for 2012 wheat production in the Black Sea region due to dry and hot weather, particularly in the Russian Federation, and strong maize values have put upward pressure on wheat prices since the second half of June.

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OECD and FAO publish new Agricultural Outlook

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on July 11, 2012

While international agricultural commodity markets appear to have calmed after record highs last year, food commodity prices are anticipated to remain on a higher plateau over the next decade, underpinned by firm demand but a slowing growth in global production, according to the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.

Population growth, higher per capita incomes, urban migration and changing diets in developing countries, as well as rising requirements for biofuel feedstocks, are underpinning demand pressures. At the same time, agricultural output by traditional exporting developed countries has been slow to respond to higher prices in the last decade, the report says.

The report was launched at a press conference at FAO Headquarters in Rome with OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría and FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva.

Read more or watch the press conference webcast.

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Prices ease a bit, cereal production forecast up

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on December 8, 2011

Photo: ©FAO/Vasily Maximov Speaking of prices, FAO released its November Food Price Index today, which saw prices virtually unchanged from their October levels. At the new level of 215 points, the Index was 23 points, or 10 percent, below its peak in February 2011 but remained two points, or one percent, above its November 2010 level.

The prices of cereals, one of the main commodity groups included in the Food Price Index, dropped by 3 points or  1 percent from October.

Contributing to the downward pressure on cereal prices is the significant upward revision of the 2011/2012 global cereal supply estimate as a result of better crop prospects in some Asian countries and the Russian Federation, and larger than anticipated stocks in the latter. Other factors include deteriorating world economic prospects and a strong U.S. dollar.

These are among the highlights of the latest issue of FAO’s quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report also published today. The report confirmed a record level of world cereal production of 2 323 million tonnes for 2011 – a 3.5 percent increase on 2010 production. FAO says that this should be sufficient to cover the expected increase in utilization in the coming year and also allow for a moderate replenishment of world reserves.

Read more on the report, including updates on the world’s food insecurity hot spots.

For more on the global price situation, watch this Bloomberg interview with FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian.

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Visualizing the Farm Bill

Submitted by Steve Hirsch on November 23, 2011

The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for a Livable Future recently launched a web-based application that provides budget information on the 2008 farm bill.

The Farm Bill Budget Visualizer displays information related to the Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008, due for reauthorization next year, with interactive “treemap” technology. This method uses nested rectangles to show data, allowing users to “see” funding received by programs within the legislation, and to examine how funding has been split among issues from public health to commodity grain production to conservation.

Farm Bill Visualizer

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What’s driving food prices?

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on July 20, 2011

A new report from the Farm Foundation says demand for corn-based ethanol and a dramatic rise in Chinese imports of soybeans are key drivers of food prices in 2011. Other factors include weather-related production shortfalls, changes in cropping patterns and a weak and volatile US dollar.

The report’s authors, Purdue University economists Wallace Tyner, Philip Abbott and Christopher Hurt, presented their findings yesterday at a Farm Foundation Forum at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. The new report builds on similar work done by the authors in 2008 and 2009.

A tight world stock situation for corn and soybeans is likely to persist, along with high prices, for at least two crop years, the report says.

“The cupboard is absolutely bare. That’s why what happens to this crop still this year is very, very important,” said co-author Christopher Hurt. “We just aren’t going to get out of this, at least on those two crops, this coming year.”

The report also looks at implications for US agricultural policy, including a shift from a policy of surplus to one focused on stimulating supply.

“Today, we are in an era of shortage, and we don’t have a lot of experience with policies of shortage,” said Wallace Tyner.

Read the full report or listen to the audio from the Farm Foundation Forum.

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Does food price volatility matter?

Submitted by Teresa Buerkle on July 13, 2011

Not according to Cristopher Barrett (Cornell) and Marc Bellemare (Duke). Writing in Foreign Affairs, they argue that the real problem is expensive food and that global leaders are wrong to focus on unstable prices rather than high ones.

“Policies aimed at curbing food price volatility, such as export bans, price stabilization schemes, and subsidies for farmers are misguided if policymakers aim to increase the welfare of the poor, or avert political unrest in developing countries.”

The full paper, including notes and statistical tables, is available here.

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